GA - Giant Interactive - Chart Of The Week.

Giant Interactive is a online gaming company in China. Notice how there has been a sort of flat line to the MACDs and even the price. But what is changing now is that the price is ever so slightly rising relative to its 50d EMA(exponential moving average). ADX trend indicator has also shown signs of shifting. Stochastic popped into positive territory and looks like it could stay there. If the trend is shifting, it is strategic to get in while the beta is low, and you have a slight rise to the price relative to its MA's - you can get 5% without any notice.




Risk Management:

Sell if the short term uptrend line is broken.

Chart of the Week - CHANNEL BREAK

Central Pacific Financial Corp. (CPF) has broken it's bottom channel line which is a trend reversal concept. Watch for the development of a new channel and its transgression lines.

From Online Trading Concepts

Trend Reversals
When price closes outside of the Linear Regression Channel for long periods of time, this is often interpreted as an early signal that the past price trend may be breaking and a significant reversal might be near.

Linear Regression Channels are quite useful technical analysis charting tools. In addition to identifying trends and trend direction, the use of standard deviation gives traders ideas as to when prices are becoming overbought or oversold relative to the long term trend.




According to the concept, a new uptrend should begin. I guess only time will tell.

Chart of the Week (and decade)

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (MTU)


I first found the idea of Japanese banks as a good bet for 2010 from the blog THE OIL TRADERS BLOG. I then delved into some charts and found the technicals to be quite impressive. I decided to post this one as the "Chart of the Week or(more like decade) which shows a massive possible trend change. It all makes sense in the respect that the Japanese Banking Crisis happened in the late 80's early 90's. Our banks dominated the last 20 years and arguably longer but the tides may have shifted and put Japan's financing in the lead going forward - we'll see.

Here is a chart of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. MTU which shows a massive Long Term trend shift in the form of a Head and Shoulders bottom.





Other tickers he mentions are MFG, NMR.

AUY vs. MU

Here is a view of why the short early cycle/long late cycle may be quite profitable in the short term and also give you a bit of downside protection.

AUY Channel

The objective is to expect a bounce to the median channel and even the upper band. Watch for breakdown at support channel. If it breaks, strategy will have to be re-evaluated.





MU Channel

*Notice it is in the median of its channel - it can still thrust to that upper channel and then create the downside correction/consolidation period.




The looming risk in this trade is if AUY breaks down at trendline(it can happen) and MU keeps going - that would hurt, but worth the risk.

Watching the leaders for "The Shift"

I first wrote about the coming secular bull market in the semiconductor space in the 2008 article THE OTHER COMMODITY. In it was the first pitch on the idea that a secular shift was occurring in the Semiconductor space, and more specifically the Philadelphia semiconductor index (^SOXX).

Well, almost 2 years have passed since that article and we are still showing signs that this huge turn could be manifesting, although the first purge may be coming to an end.

In this article I will demonstrate that the current bull move for the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index could be coming to a end and a medium-term corrective trend could begin - meaning we could see a 6-9m downward consolidation phase.


Is the bull alive and well in Semi land? - Yes, by all means this is just the first pitstop where one should protect profits, scale back, and even use this current move to add to the strategy of long late cycles, like energy and gold, and short early cycles such as Semi's.

Here are a few charts to contemplate this theory that we may get a 15-25% correction in Semi stocks soon.

Semi Index hit my resistance zone and is showing what could be a Long Term WAVE 1 completion, with a corrective WAVE 2 coming, of ELLIOT WAVE THEORY.



I like MU as the best overall technical play. I posted about the CHANNEL BREAK below which showed the reversal of that trend.





But things are shifting, and I am now looking what could be the completing of a WAVE 5 count. This coincides with the Semi Index completing the WAVE 1 of the index above.





In essence, the current move off the bottom could be coming to completion. At what price this happens is still up in the air as these type of capitulation things can go farther, faster than you think, but over the next 6-9months, prices will be at best flat in this space, and probably experience a 15-25% correction.

This would bode well for a short early cycle/long late cycle risk adjusted strategy. This by no means means the end of the secular trend is over, but rather if you want to try and time the market, this is a place to try.

Always enter at your own risk, but with MU up almost 250%, I'll take those chances.

Chart of The Week

L-1 Identity Solutions Inc. (ID)

TIMEFRAME (3-6weeks) Target $8.50 - $9.50




Stop Loss at Trendline.

For the New Year! Happy 2010!

Happy 2010! After quite the year, not to mention decade, for the markets, Pollux Technicals would like to note some changes to the format styling this year.

CHANGES for 2010

1. I will now post a weekly stockpick type of blog - I will name it something later.

2. I will be setting up a twitter account for more realtime thoughts and updates, current momentum plays, and general market stuff.twitter.com/Pollux Technicals


3. I will add a montly analysis of a different world market.

4. I have also started a Facebook group - Become a fan!! Pollux Technicals

There may be more changes to come.


Pollux (β Gem / β Geminorum / Beta Geminorum) is an orange giant star approximately 34 light-years from the Earth in the constellation of Gemini (the Twins). Pollux is the brightest star in the constellation, brighter than Castor (Alpha Geminorum). As of 2006[update], Pollux was confirmed to have an extrasolar planet orbiting it.

The name Pollux refers specifically to Castor and Pollux, the sons of Leda.[1] The star also bears Arabic name Al-Ras al-Tau'am al-Mu'akhar,(الرأس التؤام المؤخر), literally, 'The Head of the Second Twin.' Historically, the Chinese recognized Pollux as Yang, which in ancient philosophy was one of the two fundamental principles upon which all things depend. Castor and Pollux together correspond to the Nakshatra Punarvasu in Hindu astronomy.

Castor and Pollux are the two 'heavenly twin' stars giving the constellation Gemini (Latin, 'the twins') its name. The stars, however, are nothing alike. Castor is a complex sextuple system comprised of hot, bluish-white A-type stars and dim red dwarfs, while Pollux is a single, cooler yellow-orange giant. The name is traditionally thought by some people[who?] to carry the meaning 'much wine,' since astrologers associate Pollux with prosperity and celebration with wine