Thursday, April 21, 2011

Channel Break - SLV

Blowing out a 10yr top channel trend line. The top is TBD but a technician would use this opportunity to call this area a place to make a calculated bet that SLV can't keep rising, at least this fast.

Saturday, February 26, 2011

YRCW - A Testament.

There is a bet out there - it is an all or nothing bet. It has many characteristics of the world we live - politics, economics, and labor unions. The bet is this: either the chart below will live another day or it will cease to exist, soon. They both offer extreme sceneraios one way or another - bankruptcy with unions cracking, falling apart or an undervalued coil effect based on new social policy structures. Place your bets!

Friday, February 25, 2011

Channel Trading - CPST

Trading is often simple in hindsight. Its usually simple premises that create the most value - anything that has many layers of complication for the reason to buy a stock can sometimes debilitate a trader. Add that to the over-abundance of trading vehicles and leveraged abilities enticing your account every moment and keeping things simple can be hard.

Channel trading is simple. Buy at a price(level) you have seen hold its ground before and sell at a price(level) that you have seen fail before.

A simple trading idea and identification process.

CPST - Capstone Turbine Corporation - you may want to be strategic in entry here as we may get a short term correction as you can see in the chart. The ADX is spread far apart so we need some consolidation. The only other risk is if we see a little mania breadth and the stock keeps running as oil climbs. Use a pullback as a buying opportunity.

Good luck!

Monday, February 14, 2011

ADX Strategy Update

The ADX portfolio is moving along but I am implementing some changes to the enter/exit strategy due to its current rigidness.

The Enter Strategy

  1. ADX is rising - between 20-27. We will change to 18-25.
  2. +DI is above 20
  3. -DI is below 20
Exit Strategy

  1. After the ADX closes with a 35, you sell the position on the 5th day it closes at 35 consecutively. (If it closes above for 3 days, then dips below for 2, and back up for 2 more up days, you now have to wait 3 more days for the signal to confirm)
  2. A 40% gain closes out the position.
  3. Stock losses 15% closes out position.
  4. DI - crosses above 20 you sell after 5th consecutive day close - we will delete this rule completely.
  5. ADX indicator moves below 20 for a period of 5 days.  We will now change to it to 18.

If we look at JASO and the reasoning for the changes as shown.

With these added changes to the ADX strategy we will now incur more volatility in general but we still have the limit loss in place to protect us from fallout.  So far so good.  Good Luck!!

Tuesday, February 1, 2011

ADX Portfolio Strategy - New Buy Signal - YRCW

First off, yes, I understand YRCW is a beaten down old dirty trucking company that had an outsized balance sheet and tons of debt, especially after merging from Yellow and Roadway.

But the ADX momentum indicator is concerned about momentum only - and YRCW is showing upward momentum.

I added YRCW to the ADX portfolio. The current statistics are below in the spreadsheet. All data is based on unrealized gains/losses.

The portfolio closed out 3 trades for January. It currently holds 3 stocks in the portfolio. It is up 5% for the month/year.

Friday, January 21, 2011

SIGA gives sell signal

SIGA has traded with ADX below 20 for 5 days. We will sell today and add cash. We will also be looking for an ADX hedge using that cash position.

And the current ADX portfolio stands.

2 positions

Long MTU

Cash: $4,296

Looking to add a short.

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Current ADX Portfolio

Jaso was added yesterday morning at 7.20 - 500 shares. Current ADX as stands.

I am going to look for a hedge using the indicator in opposite. We will find one with the - DMI popping with ADX in momentum. Start protecting January gains.