Tuesday, July 22, 2008

EWJ - Going Long Japan.


TimeFrame - Long Term(1-3yrs)
Low Risk and Low Beta

1st Target: < 6months - $13.50
2nd Target: 6 -15 months - $15
3rd Target: 1-3yrs - $19

The EWJ is showing a recent consolidation pattern that may be nearing an end. There are 2 charts: a daily and a weekly. The weekly trendline is being tested in the first chart. The 2nd chart shows a shorter time frame which suggests more volatility ahead but with MACD's testing the low again, the RED AROON extended on the corrective side of things, and the recent stochastic jump, we are seeing positive technical developments that suggests that EWJ is continuing to carve out a bottom. We do need to see volume confirm this, so watch for this in the coming weeks.

Breakdown target would be 10.50.

Friday, July 18, 2008

UNG - Throwback finds support.

UNG: Accumulate.

The first chart is a revised version of the ETF: UNG. The second chart is the first analysis that was formulated, and shows the beginning of the technical term "throwback". It looks as though it penetrated below the first support I had drawn and hit the 2nd support line - also its 200 EMA. UNG will likely bounce/consolidate for the rest of summer/year.
Look for the commodity complex for some of the best day trading setups going as the volatility has now increased on this correction. Play the patterns, which there tend to be many triangles in the commodity world, but technical analysis has to be malleable in some form, so when you're looking for one thing, it's always another. This correction is better for the overall long term pricing of commodities and will create the base from which prices will go higher. UNG is now in accumulation.

Friday, July 11, 2008

Why the NASDAQ stands on firmer ground!

Long-Term Trend Analysis

Timeframe (1-3 years) NASDAQ outperforms.

The Nasdaq has held onto the march lows so far while the DJIA has broken through its support. What are the charts saying? It says the NASDAQ is still the top of the competition in the global world, while the DJIA may just be losing its competitve edge all together. After the NASDAQ's high flying bust from 5,048.62 in the year 2000, the Nasdaq, now 8 years later, is only sitting at 2257, which is a good 50% away from its peak. As our banking system, our consumer, our auto giants, and many other moving economic parts settle into the new paradigm of globalization, the DJIA will have a tougher time because it has lost its competitive edge as the "father" of world markets, and now is heading towards the "grandfather" of world markets, while the technology heavy NASDAQ is still the blueprint for modernizing economies and is passing the test here.
As we look at what the chart and this recent breakdown of the DJIA vs the NASDAQ holding onto its support, the NASDAQ could now be the one to lead. It's proven that it does not want to go below the March lows, so far, while the DJIA has already penetrated through these levels. Thats why the Nasdaq will outperform relative to the DJIA going forward. This also holds well to the SOXX - PHLX SEMICONDUCTOR SECTOR INDEX theory I posted about earlier in the year.

Thursday, July 10, 2008

FCX vs. CHK - Breakout Backtesting.




Above is a chart of CHK at the beginning of the 08 and after an almost 2 year consolidation. If we look we can see that the "headfake" or sometimes known as"search and destroy" techniques, took affect on CHK before it's rocketing breakout move.

The first chart shows what it looked like and the 2nd chart shows where CHK went after the headfake and breakout.

I am looking at FCX in the same respect here, as of today. Sure, we could break down and I would put a sell-stop at 98.50 for that, but we could also be seeing the same thing that happened to CHK in the beginning of the year happen with FCX.

CHK made a move back to the 200 EMA at tested the main trendline and as you can see by the 2nd chart, and FCX is doing nearly the same thing. This also means the degree of the trend angle could be shifting higher, meaning the trendline is steepening.

Tuesday, July 8, 2008

VIX - 1st Resistance - Quad Strategy Holding.

Market bounce is more probable as the VIX and DJIA will show - not too mention we have oil prices falling.

This is the first resistance for VIX. We could fall off resistance and market bounces aggressively, or we still penetrate through to the dotted blue line. Either way we are entering convergence of DJIA and VIX - look at the 1/2 Quad Strategy and the VIX resistance.

FCX testing trendline.

FCX Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. is testing a intermediate trendline. If we get a "hammer" candlestick on 20 million+ volume then we go higher, if not we have to respect the sell-stop at 98.50..

List of Candlestick Patterns.

NOTE: A trendline is only a trendline if it can touch 3 different points of reference. Two pointed trendlines are in fact not trendlines.

Monday, July 7, 2008

Coal Stocks - Take the Money and Run - MEE, ACI, CNX.



Original Analysis Below.
Profits of 12-15% + have been achieved since I posted to short these coal stocks. At these levels it is prudent to take the postion off. If you still feel they have more downside, then only stay short 25% of the original postion and cover the rest if you get a 5%+ more downside.
Overall the short swing worked and you have to respect it, take it, and now watch for the buy signals, or something different to emerge from them.

FCEL and BLDP - Play of the Month.




Time Frame (3-5 month swing - with profit strategies during this period - stay tuned)

Ballard Power is a weekly technical chart that has come to an inflexion point. This looks the best of the two and shows more symmetry than Fuelcell, which looks as if it trades in more of channel. Also, these are election plays and one of the best sources for the world wide bus market, next to natural gas, but as nat. gas gets more expensive, these type of systems look more attractive for domestic budget issues.

Tuesday, July 1, 2008

1/2 QUAD STRATEGY - Last buy triggered.

The 3rd and last entry point for the 1/2 QUAD strategy would be completed at these levels. The market should bounce as the probabilities are increasing here, but anythings possible.

SLV- BUY. Silver follows Golds lead.

All of this commodity boom is based on shrinkage of Amercian Wealth! What's in your wallet? Bank paper, which is paper backed up by more paper, or something that will never erode like a clunk of silver? For all of the bankers out there, this is the phsycology that is keeping price higher and will continue until we stop the evaporation of Amercian wealth.