KKD - The move that was.

I first posted about Krispy Kreme KKD on my stockharts page in January and said that this was one to accumulate- there were even times you could accumulate KKD for under $3 dollars.

I recently posted a buy recommendation for KKD on June 10th and since then it has run 65% to a recent high of 5.60. The Tehcnicals were there and the propabilities were also - the MA's were crossing, teh resistance line was being breached, the RSI bounced on 50 and the Money Flows were extremely in favor of demand for the stock.

I will recommend selling 2/3 of KKD here and letting go of the last 1/3 if prices move towards the resistance line, possibly even pulling a Doji Star into the resistance area. Overall the technicals spoke - the market listened - or was it vice versus? I'll let you decide.

DRAM pricing turns down - Semis go into consolidation.

Inter-Market analysis says that semi's are in consolidation for summer. Front end of pricing has turned down as the link below will show. Pollux Technicals believes this is only a short-term stance as the consolidation of competition continues and the over-built supply/demand issues continue to play out. Long Term (3-5yrs) the semiconductor industry remains an overweight.

http://www.dramexchange.com/watch/price_index_main_new.asp

VIX at resistance - Markets likely to bounce.

In May I did a piece on the VIX vs DJIA which has played out quite nicely. If we look back we can see that the VIX bounced on support of 17.5 and the DJIA hit resticance area at the same time - a good calculated place to change portfolio stance. We put a strategic plan in place to accumulate cheap stock according to the QUAD strategies that Pollux Technicals created in its earlier post.

According to the charts, we can see something is happening again with VIX at resistance while the Dow Jones Industrial average is at 1st support of the 1/2 QUAD strategy. This is the first point where one would buy stocks according to the 1/2 QUAD(more bearish). According to the 1/3 QUAD(more bullish) it would be the 2nd point where one would buy stock. All in all, a market bounce is likely here according to the VIX which has been a good indicator for this meandering market correction.

Platinum

Platinum has broken out of its channel range and possibly going into what Goldman Sachs would term a "super cycle". Look for the metal to continue to outperform its peers, especially due to the supply concerns again.

There is recent article on the affects of Platinum price and US auto sales that I believe again misrepresents the dynamic forces moving prices.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=abzKqd6jaEBA&refer=commodities

The fact is that auto sales and growth aren't in the US. The growth continues to come from emerging markets, although it will come in the smaller, lower margined car markets, thus creating the demand for platinum, and all other commodites, no matter what the US is doing with it's auto, or any other purchasing in general. When these shifts change the first conclusion is most often the wrong conclusion, so with people focusing on the muddled US economy when looking at commodity pricing - most likely they are not seeing the true landscape, especially with what has happened to OIL despite the slow US economy. The rise of commodity prices is a byproduct of worldly demand-pull inflation, thereby creating rising prices for the US economy while were in the midst of major changes to our financial system. This also leads to stagflation as the credit woes deteriorate our wealth factors - but were not going to try and become economists, were just going to analyze the charts.

SWC - Stillwater mining will be a major beneficiary of any swings in price and with the last run at the beginning of the year, and after a consolidation, SWC has triggered a buy signal.

Palladium

Palladium has consolidated since its run to 600 on supply concerns out of South Africa - a pennant is now forming which shows a near term run to 600 is evident. As production continues to decrease, the price will continue to increase. Palladium has many uses, but the main use is in catalytic converters which are an environmental necessity on all cars in the US, and again as the demand continues to come from overseas, and as emerging economies modernize, envrionmental standards will change and be another catalyst for continued demand. The supply/demand picture favors higher prices and the technicals back this thesis up.

Citigroup - 3 ways to play

Three ways to play Citigroup from a technical standpoint:

Scalp trade: sell at the dotted line - buy again when it corrects - but you have to be extremely fast.

Swing Trade: sell at the the solid line - wait for pull back to the dotted line and buy again.

Long Term Trade: take the 5% dividend and believe that C will trade in the 30's at the end of 09.

Citigroup's technicals are showing signs of improving. The RSI is near the bottom range, although we have not seen it cross below 30 to create a colorful and more convincing penetration: this is why you would start averaging into it here to be sure you are in the game, but your not the only one on the court.

Also, the Money Flow has started to show positive divergence and the volume is increasing here on the right side of the potential double bottom.

The MACD's have been carving itself out below the neutral line with a postive bias since the October plunge, with a penetration recently to +1, and now a retracement to -1. Remember, that right there is parallel divergence - a run back to 0 should be in order.

Sell stop at 17.5 to enable risk management.

As sweet as Krispy Kreme.

As the restructuring continues, the technicals improve.LT Bottom could be in place.