Thursday, June 26, 2008
HSI - HANG SENG revisited.
Let's see if overseas markets can save US markets. Hang Seng(HSI) is consolidating and a possible head and shoulders bottoming pattern could be emerging. If we get a breakdown, look for it to head to the breakdown target where support exists.
DJIA - Entry Points
The 1/3 QUAD strategy would be completed as of today. This would be the 3rd point in which you would re-enter the market.
The 1/2 QUAD strategy is hitting its 2nd entry point today. This is where you would re-enter with capital knowing that you could possibly have a third point of entry soon again.
Look at the indicators - MACD's testing lows soon. RSI is hitting bottom. Fast Stochastic has been dragging for awhile. A bounce is highly-probable.
C - Sell-Stop Warning!
We have to respect that the technicals could deteriorate further giving us a sell-stop warning. Volume is large and if the bounce doesn't occur then more downside risk is ahead. Look at the MACD's which could easily turn down and test that November -3 level.
Recommendation - Sell 1/2 the position and if it breaks down below 17.50 sell the other half and move on for now.
Recommendation - Sell 1/2 the position and if it breaks down below 17.50 sell the other half and move on for now.
UNG - Throwback in process.
A throwback is occuring. Use this as an opportunity to scoop up cheap stock. Green box is accumulation area.
THROWBACK - A price move back toward the entry level of a security that has broken beyond the barrier of a price pattern or trendline. The retreat toward the level of the breakout is not uncommon and is used by many traders to confirm the validity of the new momentum.
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Coal Stocks - MEE, CNX, ACI - Short-Term Negative
Coal Stocks - Short -Term Negative.
Time frame 4-8 weeks, although we saw some of that action occur today, so the time fram may actually be shorter.
Coal stocks have had great runs, and I don't believe the commodity top has burst yet - not by a long shot - but at this point we need the technicals to take a breather and that means corrections are sometimes in order.
I added three charts on MEE, CNX, ACI, and notations of some negatives which would make the case for a short sell. The most bearish going from top to bottom. Pollux Technicals believes this is just a correction that needs to occur in order to support longer term prices. The technicals are looking overbought, but it's waiting for the correction to occur that will be the bigger challenge. These are by no means the long-researched, balance sheet dug type of all out short, but rather a move back to neutral that can be exploited.
Take the profits when they hit - anywhere between 7-10% corrections should be strategically removed - meaning take 2/3 off at the 7-10% correction and another 1/3 off if it hits 10-12% correction.
Stop-Loss Targets:
ACI 77.10
MEE 96.10
CNX 121.10
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