Thursday, October 30, 2008

Why the market bounce is for real!

After a violent and destructive thrust through the overhead resistance/ceiling of what "normal" used to mean on the VIX, The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®), we may now see momentum waning and a corrective course taking place. Look at the stochastic pulling a negative divergence on the recent high, the ROC(Rate Of Change) Indicator is falling and the ADX(trending indicator) looks like it has peaked - all for the meantime.

Lets look at the 50 as a short-term support and a possible intermediate trend downward back to the 35-40 area. The bigger question then remains if the VIX has now entered a new "era" where we will gauge market sentiment in between 30's and 80's, which would also mean more volatility. If this new era of the VIX does hold, then it will be a traders market with mini bulls, something that would resemble a channeling market. Or is this the ever so slow bleeding of the VIX back down to the 10 area? I guess you'd have to stick around for that one because its a long way off from here, but possible.

Let's now concentrate on the VIX short-term support zone(50's) and near-term zone of (35-40). This could act as correlation zones with the DJIA overhead resistances. I would equate the test of the 50 support area on the VIX with the DJIA 9500 overhead resistance. The 40 support area of VIX would correlate with the DJIA overhead resistance of 10500 - thats where the VIX broke the overhead resistance in late Sept/early Oct and the market crashed - yes, that was a crash.

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