SIL - Strong Buy

Parallel World.

I would short the first chart and buy the second chart, but the reality is that they are the same chart just flipped - this was done in photoshop. This gives you a context of what it would look like if the price was going the other way.

3 Technicals for the 2nd chart:



RSI hitting bottom and deeply penetrated.
AROON about to shift.
MACD's hitting bottom - which has been a good indicator for a bounce.



BOLLINGER BANDS are showing the stock is oversold and a move back to "normal" 6.44 is due - its the neutrality of the technical mechanism. Also, look how far we have strayed from the Moving Averages. If we live in a parallel universe, and SIL was rising this fast, a short trade would be in order. The prices can not move that far away from MA's - in a normal scenario. The green box is the price target.



Developed by John Bollinger, Bollinger Bands are an indicator that allows users to compare volatility and relative price levels over a period time. The indicator consists of three bands designed to encompass the majority of a security's price action.
A simple moving average in the middle
An upper band (SMA plus 2 standard deviations)
A lower band (SMA minus 2 standard deviations)
Standard deviation is a statistical unit of measure that provides a good assessment of a price plot's volatility. Using the standard deviation ensures that the bands will react quickly to price movements and reflect periods of high and low volatility. Sharp price increases (or decreases), and hence volatility, will lead to a widening of the bands.


Bollinger Band Targets.

1st target $6.44

Second target $8.33

Copper - Strong Buy

I've been updating charts on copper for some time now - we had an attempt to breakout on copper prices at the beginning of the year, but we quickly sold off from that level, even as copper inventories stayed low. With the recent activity and technical changes, Copper could be once again attempting at the resistance line.

The two charts are different time frames. The longer time frame shows that we could still have prices falling to 325-350 area, but with the technical landscape changing, it is looking less and less likely. The recent action suggests buying from overseas again as the emerging economies are holding up better than the US. As long as Copper inventories stay as low as the charts show, that means, according to Econ 101, that the supply/demand picture supports higher prices.

**Notice the ADX indicator on the shorter time frame which has recently hit bottom - this has shown great buy signals in the past.

I would put a plan into place to go long copper equities, and even start accumulating large portions of the junior miners because their reserves will now start to be noticed by the large caps, even if they are not mining those reserves. The large caps will start to use their cash by gobbling up the juniors and turn those reserves in revenue. We'll look for some juniors this week and post an analysis on a couple.

COW - Livestock Total Return - BUY.

Wouldn't you know it - meat prices are rising.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080622/midwest_flooding_food_prices.html

COW - yes, that's right - is trending higher and everyone wants a piece of it. Volume is increasing substantially here and it has carved itself out since the IPO price. I would look for first resistance at 47 and then the breakout point at 50. The only indicator I'm really looking at here is the MACD's(Moving Average Convergence/Divergence), a stocks momentum, which has shown some positive divergence as is seen with the peeling away of the indicator(Bullish Crossover).

This analysis is truly only a momentum play - a special situation if you will. IPO's have no track record so it can be a dangerous play because if we believe in Technical Analysis - which is the reading of the overall condition of the stocks past performance relative to the future performance, well IPO's don't have any history from which to track. During "mania's" IPO's are nothing more than momentum plays - pure and simple - yes, occasionally you get a GOOG, but for the most part these stocks are meant for short term traders so, buyers beware.

KKD - The move that was.

I first posted about Krispy Kreme KKD on my stockharts page in January and said that this was one to accumulate- there were even times you could accumulate KKD for under $3 dollars.

I recently posted a buy recommendation for KKD on June 10th and since then it has run 65% to a recent high of 5.60. The Tehcnicals were there and the propabilities were also - the MA's were crossing, teh resistance line was being breached, the RSI bounced on 50 and the Money Flows were extremely in favor of demand for the stock.

I will recommend selling 2/3 of KKD here and letting go of the last 1/3 if prices move towards the resistance line, possibly even pulling a Doji Star into the resistance area. Overall the technicals spoke - the market listened - or was it vice versus? I'll let you decide.

DRAM pricing turns down - Semis go into consolidation.

Inter-Market analysis says that semi's are in consolidation for summer. Front end of pricing has turned down as the link below will show. Pollux Technicals believes this is only a short-term stance as the consolidation of competition continues and the over-built supply/demand issues continue to play out. Long Term (3-5yrs) the semiconductor industry remains an overweight.

http://www.dramexchange.com/watch/price_index_main_new.asp

VIX at resistance - Markets likely to bounce.

In May I did a piece on the VIX vs DJIA which has played out quite nicely. If we look back we can see that the VIX bounced on support of 17.5 and the DJIA hit resticance area at the same time - a good calculated place to change portfolio stance. We put a strategic plan in place to accumulate cheap stock according to the QUAD strategies that Pollux Technicals created in its earlier post.

According to the charts, we can see something is happening again with VIX at resistance while the Dow Jones Industrial average is at 1st support of the 1/2 QUAD strategy. This is the first point where one would buy stocks according to the 1/2 QUAD(more bearish). According to the 1/3 QUAD(more bullish) it would be the 2nd point where one would buy stock. All in all, a market bounce is likely here according to the VIX which has been a good indicator for this meandering market correction.

Platinum

Platinum has broken out of its channel range and possibly going into what Goldman Sachs would term a "super cycle". Look for the metal to continue to outperform its peers, especially due to the supply concerns again.

There is recent article on the affects of Platinum price and US auto sales that I believe again misrepresents the dynamic forces moving prices.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=abzKqd6jaEBA&refer=commodities

The fact is that auto sales and growth aren't in the US. The growth continues to come from emerging markets, although it will come in the smaller, lower margined car markets, thus creating the demand for platinum, and all other commodites, no matter what the US is doing with it's auto, or any other purchasing in general. When these shifts change the first conclusion is most often the wrong conclusion, so with people focusing on the muddled US economy when looking at commodity pricing - most likely they are not seeing the true landscape, especially with what has happened to OIL despite the slow US economy. The rise of commodity prices is a byproduct of worldly demand-pull inflation, thereby creating rising prices for the US economy while were in the midst of major changes to our financial system. This also leads to stagflation as the credit woes deteriorate our wealth factors - but were not going to try and become economists, were just going to analyze the charts.

SWC - Stillwater mining will be a major beneficiary of any swings in price and with the last run at the beginning of the year, and after a consolidation, SWC has triggered a buy signal.